This weekend, I did the quintessential fall activity – visited the pumpkin patch at our local Anderson Farms! The perfect way to spend a fall day; we even got a little lost in the corn maze before picking out the perfect pumpkin to carve.
What I really want to talk about is not just pumpkins, although you know I am all about pumpkin everything right now, even after reading about the “pumpkin spice tax” that I am likely paying on all my pumpkin items I have purchased this fall (check out this article featured in Self entitled, Your Favorite Fall Foods May Carry a ‘Pumpkin Spice Tax’).
Even though I have pumpkin carving on my mind, let’s talk about the current price environment for oil. As I write this, WTI Crude is sitting at $52.09 per barrel and Brent Crude is sitting at $58.15, according to Bloomberg Energy.
What are people in the “know” saying about oil prices? Well, as you might guess, global factors, specifically, tensions in Iraq, are a significant player.
The following recent articles note that global considerations play a meaningful role:
- Bloomberg: Oil Rally Wanes as Rising Fuel Stockpiles Stir Demand Worries
- The New York Times: Are the Days of Low Oil Prices Receding?
Specifically, The New York Times article describes the impact on, and sensitivity of oil prices, to supply threats like the Iraq tensions in good detail by describing that:
- “[t]he area around Kirkuk and the Kurdish region is one of the major oil-producing areas of Iraq”
- “around 400,000 [barrels a day] comes from fields around Kirkuk that could be caught up in the conflict”
What will actually happen to oil prices?
As usual, your guess is as good as mine when it comes to oil prices, and many are predicting another significant decline in price. This article featured on oilprice.com entitled, The World’s Top Crude Trader Sees Brent Crashing to $45, predicts a landslide in 2018. Similarly, this article featured last week on CNBC entitled, Oil Market Bulls are Wrong to Forecast a Pick-Up in Prices – and Here’s Why, reflects a dim price environment for oil in 2018.
Predicting what will happen to oil prices is a little like being lost in the corn maze…